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The Island Climate Update

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • The tropical Pacific remained ENSO neutral, although some indicators leaned toward La Niña.
  • Sea surface temperatures were in the ENSO neutral range but decreased during August compared to July.
  • The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +0.5 during August (neutral). The three-month average SOI was +0.8 (on the La Niña side of neutral).
  • 50% chance each for the continuation of ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions during September - November 2021.
  • 60% Chance for La Niña conditions during December 2021 - February 2022.

Rainfall and Drought Watch

September - November 2021 rainfall forecast
  • Southern Cook Islands: Above normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
  • Northern Cook Islands: Below normal rainfall for next 3 months. Potential drought advisory also may experience water stress. The Northern Cooks have received low rainfall over part of the past six months, and dry conditions are possible over the next three-month period.