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The Island Climate Update

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • La Niña conditions continued in the equatorial Pacific during July.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were in the neutral range during July, but the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +1.7 for May-July, well above the La Niña threshold.
  • Very strong trade winds during July are expected to lead to a re-strengthening of La Niña in the coming months.
  • 70% chance for La Niña conditions during August – October 2022.
  • 65% chance for La Niña conditions during November 2022 – January 2023

Rainfall and Drought Watch

August - October 2022 rainfall forecast
  • Southern Cook Islands: Near normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
  • Northern Cook Islands: Below normal rainfall for next 3 months. Northern Cook Islands may also experience water stress. Pa Enua Tokerau have received low rainfall over part of the past six months and dry conditions are possible over the next three-month period.